One morning’s sheet is one morning. The question a fisherman actually asks is whether this week is late or early, wet or dry, blown out or flat — and that is a comparison, not a reading. So here are the same seven days in each of the past 11 years, from the government’s own daily record. Columns are the coming week; read down for the pattern, across for the year.
28 of the 77 days in that window, over 11 years, took 5 mm or more. Median daily peak gust 31 km/h. Over these seven days, 2020 had the hardest blow (113 km/h), 2023 the quietest (27 km/h).
Wind, km/h — daily mean peak / gust
Modelled at the marina coordinate, 10 m above ground. Amber from 40 km/h gust up. On the inlet it is the gust that decides whether you turn back, not the average.
| year | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Oct 28 | Oct 29 | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 |
|---|
| 2015 | 6 / 26 | 7 / 27 | 8 / 35 | 11 / 33 | 14 / 70 | 18 / 66 | 13 / 54 |
| 2016 | 18 / 74 | 18 / 74 | 9 / 36 | 8 / 38 | 9 / 28 | 7 / 26 | 14 / 63 |
| 2017 | 9 / 32 | 8 / 30 | 3 / 14 | 12 / 41 | 8 / 28 | 10 / 30 | 10 / 32 |
| 2018 | 16 / 63 | 9 / 46 | 16 / 67 | 13 / 41 | 13 / 49 | 12 / 39 | 19 / 85 |
| 2019 | 15 / 49 | 7 / 28 | 10 / 34 | 6 / 27 | 7 / 23 | 5 / 17 | 6 / 21 |
| 2020 | 7 / 21 | 13 / 44 | 14 / 45 | 20 / 68 | 26 / 113 | 7 / 18 | 6 / 25 |
| 2021 | 22 / 71 | 15 / 48 | 8 / 20 | 10 / 34 | 14 / 42 | 7 / 28 | 8 / 34 |
| 2022 | 16 / 52 | 26 / 89 | 15 / 47 | 20 / 68 | 22 / 73 | 15 / 48 | 7 / 24 |
| 2023 | 8 / 20 | 6 / 19 | 5 / 15 | 5 / 16 | 5 / 15 | 4 / 14 | 5 / 27 |
| 2024 | 21 / 66 | 20 / 58 | 14 / 41 | 11 / 34 | 12 / 38 | 9 / 28 | 8 / 25 |
| 2025 | 22 / 59 | 10 / 30 | 25 / 84 | 22 / 64 | 8 / 21 | 21 / 68 | 16 / 46 |
Rain, mm
Blue from 5 mm up. Rain here is the valley filling, which is what moves fish out of the upper river.
| year | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Oct 28 | Oct 29 | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 |
|---|
| 2015 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 8.4 | — | 11.8 | 19.6 | — |
| 2016 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 4.0 | — | 4.0 | — | 23.0 |
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 23.1 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 16.3 | 8.4 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | 0.8 | 28.9 | 5.7 | 20.4 | 18.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 36.1 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 0.8 | 9.6 |
| 2025 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 37.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 39.8 | 13.3 |
Air temperature, °C — daily max / min
Measured. Not water temperature: no one publishes a water temperature for this water, and I will not invent one.
| year | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Oct 28 | Oct 29 | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 |
|---|
| 2015 | 18 / 6 | 17 / 6 | 14 / 9 | — / — | 17 / 10 | 15 / 9 | 10 / 4 |
| 2016 | 12 / 6 | 14 / 9 | 12 / 9 | — / — | 10 / 8 | — / — | 10 / 6 |
| 2017 | — / — | — / — | — / — | — / — | — / — | — / — | 13 / 0 |
| 2018 | 17 / 4 | 10 / 2 | 12 / 6 | 13 / 6 | 9 / 7 | 13 / 8 | 14 / 10 |
| 2019 | 15 / -2 | 12 / -3 | 12 / -3 | 11 / -3 | 11 / -4 | 12 / -2 | 11 / -2 |
| 2020 | 12 / 2 | 14 / 6 | 16 / 9 | 15 / 10 | 13 / 2 | 12 / 1 | 12 / 2 |
| 2021 | 12 / 5 | 11 / 4 | 8 / 6 | 12 / 0 | 12 / -2 | 12 / -3 | 5 / -2 |
| 2022 | 8 / 3 | 12 / 5 | 11 / 5 | 12 / 8 | 13 / 9 | 13 / 2 | 8 / -1 |
| 2023 | 10 / -2 | 10 / -2 | 10 / -4 | 10 / -3 | 10 / -2 | 12 / -2 | 12 / -1 |
| 2024 | 11 / 7 | 11 / 6 | 13 / 5 | 10 / 4 | 9 / 5 | 10 / 4 | 7 / 5 |
| 2025 | 11 / 2 | 12 / 2 | 8 / 4 | 14 / 4 | 11 / 3 | 10 / 4 | 13 / 5 |
Pressure, daily mean hPa — modelled
The station does not report pressure, so this row is the ERA5 model at the marina coordinate (49.1525, -124.7928). Read it as the shape of the column: a steady week and a sawtooth week fish nothing alike.
| year | Oct 26 | Oct 27 | Oct 28 | Oct 29 | Oct 30 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 |
|---|
| 2015 | 1013 | 1015 | 1012 | 1014 | 1005 | 998 | 1003 |
| 2016 | 1008 | 1007 | 1012 | 1011 | 1007 | 1005 | 1010 |
| 2017 | 1026 | 1022 | 1016 | 1018 | 1023 | 1016 | 1008 |
| 2018 | 1014 | 1014 | 1009 | 1019 | 1024 | 1016 | 1015 |
| 2019 | 1030 | 1032 | 1025 | 1032 | 1029 | 1028 | 1032 |
| 2020 | 1032 | 1027 | 1021 | 1018 | 1015 | 1029 | 1024 |
| 2021 | 1002 | 1019 | 1016 | 1020 | 1023 | 1017 | 1013 |
| 2022 | 1016 | 1011 | 1019 | 1022 | 1014 | 1009 | 1007 |
| 2023 | 1024 | 1031 | 1034 | 1032 | 1027 | 1022 | 1017 |
| 2024 | 1009 | 1005 | 1012 | 1017 | 1007 | 1009 | 1003 |
| 2025 | 1008 | 1024 | 1018 | 1027 | 1024 | 1012 | 1011 |
The moon on the first of those days
The tide follows the moon, so the same calendar week lands on a different part of the tide cycle every year. Two Octobers that look alike in the tables above can fish quite differently below.
2015 Full (98%) · 2016 Waning crescent (22%) · 2017 First quarter (36%) · 2018 Waning gibbous (96%) · 2019 Waning crescent (6%) · 2020 Waxing gibbous (71%) · 2021 Waning gibbous (72%) · 2022 New (1%) · 2023 Waxing gibbous (90%) · 2024 Last quarter (37%) · 2025 Waxing crescent (21%)
Prefer a graph to a table? portalberni.weatherstats.ca draws the Port Alberni station as live charts, and
climate.weather.gc.ca is where the underlying daily record lives, station by station, free to download. This page is the record above, pulled into the one shape a fisherman asks for: the same week, every year.
What is missing, named. The column a fisherman wants most is the one with the catch in it — what came over the rail, on those days, in those gusts. There is no public record of that and I will not manufacture one. It exists only if someone who was on the water files it: the date, what you fished for, what the water was doing. Send it and it goes in dated, with your name on it, and the comparison starts to mean something.
And the honest caveat on the rows above: rain and temperature are measured, at the Environment Canada station at the airport, roughly 20 km up the valley from the China Creek float. That is the official record of the weather coming down the valley, which is the right thing to plan a day around, but it is not a gauge at the ramp. Wind and pressure are modelled at the marina coordinate, because that is the only place a continuous record exists; treat them as the weather that came through, not the gust on the water.
The station does record its own peak gust, but only on some days, and it writes “<31” when the gust stayed under 31 km/h — so I left that column out rather than hand you one full of holes. There was once a weather station at China Creek itself, station 1036207, on the books to February 1981. Nothing since.